Bayesian Analysis of 210Pb Dating

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Authors Marco A. Aquino-López, Maarten Blaauw, J. Andrés Christen, Nicole K. Sanderson
Journal/Conference Name Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics
Paper Category
Paper Abstract In studies of environmental change of the past few centuries, 210 210 Pb dating is often used to obtain chronologies for sedimentary sequences. One of the most commonly used approaches to estimate the age of material at different depths in a sequence is to assume a constant rate of supply (CRS) or influx of ‘unsupported’ 210 210 Pb from the atmosphere, together with a constant or varying amount of ‘supported’ 210 210 Pb. Current 210 210 Pb dating models do not use a proper statistical framework and provide poor estimates of the uncertainties. Here, we develop a new model for 210 210 Pb dating, where ages and values of supported and unsupported 210 210 Pb form part of the parameters. We apply our model to a case study from Canada as well as to some simulated examples. Our model can extend beyond the current CRS approach, deal with asymmetric errors and mix 210 210 Pb with other types of dating, thus obtaining more robust, realistic and statistically better defined age estimates.
Date of publication 2018
Code Programming Language C++
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