Estimating coalition majorities during political campaigns based on pre-election polls
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| Authors | Lukas F. Stoetzer, Matthias Orlowski |
| Journal/Conference Name | JOURNAL OF ELECTIONS, PUBLIC OPINION & PARTIES |
| Paper Category | Social Sciences |
| Paper Abstract | ABSTRACTIn multi-party systems, politicians, voters, and political pundits often speculate about potential coalition governments based on current poll results. Their interest particularly centers around the question whether a specific coalition has enough public support to form a parliamentary majority. In this research note, we present a Bayesian Dynamic Multinomial-Dirichlet model to estimate the probability that a coalition will find enough public support to form a parliamentary majority. An application to German federal elections from 1994–2017 and comparisons with alternative methods underscore the value of this approach. |
| Date of publication | 2019 |
| Code Programming Language | R |
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