Expressive and Strategic Behavior in Legislative Elections in Argentina
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| Authors | Lucas Núñez |
| Journal/Conference Name | POLITICAL BEHAVIOR |
| Paper Category | Social Sciences |
| Paper Abstract | In this paper I study strategic voting behavior in the Argentine Senate election for the City of Buenos Aires in 2013. I estimate and analyze the voter transition matrix between the primary and general elections using a Bayesian hierarchical model for ecological inference, utilizing a rich data set of ballot box data. The results show that strategic behavior is not widespread among the electorate in Buenos Aires. In particular, at least 75 % of voters who had the opportunity to avoid vote wasting by behaving strategically did not. I also find high levels of vote wasting when analyzing other provinces during the same election cycle. These results suggest that these electorates might be composed of a mixture of voters with strategic and expressive motivations, where the expressive factions dominate. |
| Date of publication | 2016 |
| Code Programming Language | R |
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